Showing posts with label Indian Voter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indian Voter. Show all posts

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Emulate Gujarat’s agricultural success – The Economic Times

Gujarat is a drought-prone state, with an irrigation cover of just 36% of gross cropped area. Increased water supply from Sardar Sarovar project, higher investments in check-dams and watersheds (as of June 2007, a total of 2, 97,527 check dams, boribunds and Khet Talavadi (farm ponds) had been constructed by the state in cooperation with NGOs and the private sector), and of course, good rainfall for the past few years has helped propel growth. (via Emulate Gujarat’s agricultural success- Policy-Opinion-The Economic Times).

Indian economic model

There is something interesting in the state of Gujarat. Sometime back there was a status report on finances of all state governments in India. The difference between Gujarat and the Rest of India was stark and telling. Very impressive.

While we have Westernized ‘experts’ saying that Indian agriculture is a dead end - and promoting a line of ‘there is no option apart from mega projects’, we have here in Gujarat the real solution to agriculture and water management. The Gujarat solution, which has been India’s way of managing water. Effectively, at a low cost, under the control of the people who use it and need it. Indian agriculture has a bright future – these ‘experts’ notwithstanding.

Which makes me think.

With Chief Minster’s like Yeddyurappa in the South and Narendra Modi fom the West, what BJP needs is two more Chief Ministers. One for the North and one for the East. To break the logjam at the national level. The last two electoral defeats at the national levels has seen BJP in disarray.

But at the state level it is a different story. More power to such Chief Ministers.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Scenarios and Outcomes – Indian Elections 2009

Opinion Polls and India

The 2004 elections in India was a watershed - for opinion poll industry. After 20 years of work, the opinion poll industry thought that they had the models, the tricks, questionnaires and had the Indian Voter all figured out. 2004 changed that.

What looked like a certain victory for the BJP, turned out to be victory for the 'no hope' Congress Party - a surprise front runner. It was not just one opinion poll - but nearly half a dozen opinion polls that got it wrong. No wonder, this time around they, the opinion pollsters, were subdued when the Election Commission decided to finally implement the 'no-opinion-polls-during-elections' diktat.

Unlike most Westernized 'readers' and 'experts', 2ndlook believes that the Indian Voter has been a smart voter - who has taken risks with 'unknown' parties and given opportunities to 'risky' elements. This has ensured that the Indian Voter has a large electoral choice - compared to the typical two-horse towns that passes of as elections in other countries.

This elections seems to centre around four scenarios.

Scenario 1

Congress wins between 170-200 seats. Their allies win another 70-100 seats. At the higher end of the spectrum, the combine will easily form the Government. At the lower end, the UPA combine will fall short of about 30 seats. This may not pose a significant problem. This is of course subject to who the winners of the 70-100 seats in the Congress are. That will be the crucial factor.

  1. If Mamta Banerjee wins 15-20 seats, getting additional 30 seats from the Left Parties will be difficult.

  2. That may leave the Congress to look at the ADMK - if the DMK does not do well.

  3. If the DMK also does well, then Andhra Pradesh will hold the key. Will TRS /TDP combine break up and TRS will join the Congress? Will Chiranjeevi upset the apple cart? Or is that the Congress will make these Andhra parties irrelevant.

  4. NCP, Mulayam, Lalu and Paswan will possibly go quietly with the Congress in this scenario.

  5. If Mamta does badly and so does DMK, then Congress will have easy time - as the Left and the Third Front may quietly fall in line and negotiate a good deal for themselves.

Scenario 2

BJP wins 170-200 seats. Their allies win another 70-100 seats.

  1. The biggest worry for BJP will be the President. Who will the President give the first opportunity to - in case of a close result?

  2. BJP will have a tougher time - as the Congress will try for the same allies.

  3. BJP has an advantage with an inside track with TRS, BJD, ADMK. Unlike the Congress.

  4. Will Shiv Sena rope in Sharad Pawar to join an NDA Government? Possible!

  5. How much of a chance does BJP have with Mayawati? Considerable!

  6. In this specific scenario, the big thing for the BJP will be the number of seats that the allies win.

Scenario 3

Congress and BJP get less than 150 seats each. One gets 130 - and the other gets 150! The Third and the Fourth Front get around 250 seats by themselves.

  1. BJP has said that it may partner with Congress to form a ‘stable Government! A BJP leader has gone on record saying the same!
    NCP leader PA Sangma has independently suggested that since there is "not much difference between the economic and foreign policies of these two parties and that their coming together could make India a “different country”."

  2. The other thing will be a Third Front Government - which is seeming improbable as the two main forces for a Third Front, the Left and Telugu Desam's Chandra Babu Naidu both seem to be doing badly. "Better a junior partner in a stable alliance like the UPA or NDA than a unstable Third Front" kind of thinking may win the day - and kill the Third Front.

  3. The Third Front may gravitate around Mayawati - whose ‘sarvjan' ideology is very Indic - and unique. Unlike others, who are talking about reservations, only Mayawati talks about everyone's welfare. Her bit about ‘tilak, taraazu aur talwar ... teeno ko maar jootey chaar' is again something that is a very Indic and a welcome development.

Scenario 4

The most uncertain outcome.

Congress and BJP get between 140-165 seats each - leaving just about 220-260 seats for all others. None of the three Blocs are close to a majority. The Third and the Fourth Front get seats in the 2:1 ratio. BJP /Congress are not in a position to form the Government and neither do others!

Two possibilities - a rump party will form a Government depending on support from Congress or the BJP - a la Chandrasekhar, Charan Singh, Deve Gowda, IK Gujral et al. Or the BJP or Congress will cobble up a weak alliance - a Government that will bleed to death by a thousand cuts.

Getmo' ...

  1. Nitish seeks special status for Bihar

  2. Naveen Patnaik to back Cong govt at Centre

  3. Mayawati stands by Third Front

  4. Left ready to back Nitish as PM

  5. Cong indicates willingness for Nitish's package formula

  6. Did Maya ride to secret LK meet in M-800?

  7. DMK or AIADMK? Cong plays it safe, waits for 16th

  8. BJP eyes Naveen Patnaik & Chandrababu Naidu

  9. Will Ms. Mayawati be PM, wonders India's Dalit capital

  10. Less seats for Left won't make it drive hard bargain: Cong

  11. Meeting with Rajnath was not political, says Amar Singh

  12. Mad Woman Theory of Politics in India

  13. No 2007 repeat, but Maya tally to rise

  14. AGP wants Advani as next Prime Minister

  15. Congress to emerge as single largest party: Rajasthan bookies

  16. Congress may dump DMK, may not need Maya

  17. The Kingmakers

  18. Third Front a fractured front: Praja Rajyam

Monday, March 16, 2009

Voting your caste

As Bal Thackeray once said, Indians don't just cast their vote.

As Indians prepare not to cast their vote but “vote their caste”, as Bal Thackeray once said, our sadhus and sanyasis, mahants and maulvis, pundits and preachers must be rubbing their hands in glee.

Folk faith was common in the West too until the Age of Enlightenment and then the new economic order introduced by the Industrial Revolution led to mass education and material advance. That precursor of mental development encouraged the masses to aspire to elitist heights of thought and culture. In contrast, our elite is sinking to the level of the masses. India may lead the world in Information Technology and be able to send a man to the Moon, but the influence that the successors of Dhirendra Brahmachari and Chandra Swamy are increasingly gaining suggests that the intellectual revolution that is the essential key to modernity has passed us by. (via Sunanda K Datta-Ray: Voting your caste).

Caste by another name ...

Advanced West vs ignorant Indians

Now the US votes on the basis of gender (more women voters do vote for democrats), color (more Hispanics and African Americans generally vote Democrats), age (younger voters are traditionally democrats in larger numbers), religion (only one Catholic has become a US President), race (only WASP - White Anglo Saxon Protestants allowed real power).

Now Sunanda Datta K. Ray is a bad case of vacillation - sometimes pathos and sometimes bathos. Some of his columns (Have you eaten?) is memorable for its breadth - and then you see this kind of ignorance.

In US societal divisions are called demographics and is a matter of high academic interest.(click on this link to see an interesting device to gauge demographic effects in US elections). In India, the West uses a pejorative called the caste system. The US system has ensured that the US voter gets more (Republican) or less (Democrats) of the same swill. What choice does the US voter have? The Indian voter has created a choice for himself by voting for a wide range of issues, agendas and parties.

But then the Indian voter is unlettered, ‘uneducated’ and does not speak English - and Sunanda K. Datta Ray is possibly vernacularly challenged!!


Change in Voting-Age Population (VAP), 2000-2007: Selected Battleground States in 2008
State Total VAP increase Hispanic VAP increase
Share of Total VAP Increase
Selected racial/ethnic groups Metropolitan areas
Traditionally Republican States
Colorado 15% 32% Hispanics: 32% 47% in Denver
North Carolina 12% 53% African Americans: 23%
Hispanics: 18%
29% in Raleigh-Durham
25% in Charlotte
Virginia 10% 51% Hispanics: 21%
African Americans: 21%
Asian Americans: 15%
47% in Northern Virginia
(including exurbs)
Traditionally Democratic States
Pennsylvania 3% 44% Hispanics: 38%
African Americans: 24%
Asian Americans: 20%
40% in Philadelphia suburbs
Swing States
Florida 15% 40% Hispanics: 42%
African Americans: 19%
19% in Miami-Fort Lauderdale
16% in Orlando
14% in Tampa-St. Petersburg
Missouri 7% 48% African Americans: 15%
Hispanics: 13%
35% in St. Louis
20% in Kansas City
15% in Springfield
Ohio 3% 34% African Americans: 26%
Hispanics: 18%
Asian Americans: 14%
43% in Columbus
34% in Cincinnati
Note: Data for African Americans and Asian Americans are for non-Hispanic members
of these groups who did not identify with another racial group

Sources: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau,
"Annual State Population Estimates with Sex, 6 Race Groups (5 Race Alone Groups
and One Group with Two or more Race Groups) and Hispanic Origin: April 1, 2000
to July 1, 2007," accessed online at www.census.gov/popest/datasets.html on
May 31, 2008; and "Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Selected Age Groups
and Sex for Counties: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2007,"
accessed online at www.census.gov/popest/counties/asrh/CC-EST2007-agesex.html,
on Aug. 31, 2008.