Fluent Azhagiri puts to rest doubts about English skills - India - The Times of India

As brother Stalin and mother Dayalu Ammal looked on, DMK's M K Azhagiri took oath of office in English. It sounded neither halting nor practised. And with it, the first myth of post-poll bargaining -- of Congress's apprehension over Azhagiri's lack of fluency in English -- lay well and truly busted. (via Fluent Azhagiri puts to rest doubts about English skills - India - The Times of India).

English language media in India is still in its colonial haze - and to see such decadent, colonial ideas, 60 years after the British were thrown out, boggles my imagination. To approve of a politician, because he has English-language skills, is much like the endorsement of Obama because of the colour of his skin!

I don't know which is worse!

Apply Gujarat riot case principle to Sikh riots case: PIL in SC – India – The Times of India

A day after Supreme Court directed a Special Investigation Team probe into the alleged role of chief minister Narendra Modi in the 2002 post-Godhra communal carnage, a PIL sought to draw a parallel between the Gujarat riots and the 1984 anti-Sikh riots seeking parallel treatment by the judiciary.

The petition ... said the Supreme Court has handled the Gujarat riot cases with singular motive to bring to book the alleged perpetrators of the mayhem and requested it to take up the hundreds of anti-Sikh riots cases pending in various courts for 25 years without there being any justice to the victims and their families.

The PIL, ... was also categoric that pendency of the anti-Sikh riot cases for 25 years made a mockery of the criminal justice system that should equally protect the victims and the right of the accused for a speedy trial. (via Apply Gujarat riot case principle to Sikh riots case: PIL in SC - India - The Times of India ellipsis mine).

This PIL does raise some interesting questions in the minds of people I know (and dont know too!), Your Honour!

1. Are Muslims 'more equal' than Sikhs?


2. Is killing of Muslims by Hindus more heinous than Hindu killing of Sikhs?


3. Does the fact that the 1984 killings under the very nose of the Supreme Court make it a 'more understandable' case?


4. Is there a greater need to prove to the Muslim (world) that India cares - than to prove to the Sikh population?


5. The Muslims have many spokesmen in the internal world - but the Sikhs have no one except (maybe) fellow Indians? Is the Honourable Supreme Court worried about international opinion more than due process of law - which will dis-favour the Sikhs?


6. Older cases should usually occupy the Honourable Court's attention - rather than newer ones? The Honourable Court may need to explain why a newer case has been more favoured than the older one?


7. Does the 'noise' level of a case create pressure on the Honourable Court?


8. Does the size of the Muslim electorate have anything to do with this 'activism' - compared to the lesser Sikh Voters, leading to 'passive' justice?

The Indian Supreme Court is untainted by dubious legal precedents of the American Supreme Court.

The much vaunted 'Western principle of equal in the eyes of law' was given short shrift by the US Supreme Court in the Dredd Scott case - by which the slave forefathers of the modern African-Americans were barred from approaching American Courts. Similarly, in its wisdom, the US Supreme Court rubber stamped segregation between Whites and the African Americans by the Plessy vs. Fergusonverdict (1892). In yet landmark case, the US Supreme Court decided, (Myner v. Happerstett) that being a US citizen did not give women the right to vote. Finally, after more than 100 years of Women’s Suffrage Movement, the right to vote was given to the women in the US in 1924.

Such 'differences' in judicial treatment of similar cases dilutes the high standards of that the Indian Supreme Court has set for itself.

India faces more 26/11-like threats: Former US envoy

Blackwill, who has co-authored the report titled “Terrorism against India — Lessons from Mumbai”, was delivering a lecture on the report at a meeting organised here by industry body CII. He said apart from intelligence failure, inadequate coastal security, failure of the government to respond swiftly to such incidents, inability to form a single command centre for operation against terrorists and ill-equipped police force were some of the areas of concern for India.

Speaking about the findings of his report, Blackwill said the only way to stop such attacks was swift and coordinated response and prevent terrorists from achieving their objective — which in the case of Mumbai was to grab maximum international attention. (via India faces more 26/11-like threats: Former US envoy).

Trojan horses are used even today

Here is a someone, stoking up India’s fears and insecurities. Allegedly, Blackwill was used by Manubhai to ‘expedite’ the Indo-US Nuclear deal. Is Blackwill, now with RAND Corporation, a ‘respected US think tank’, angling for another assignment – maybe on behalf on some manufacturer of police-intelligence-surveillance equipment companies?

Blackwill’s comments came in during a discussion about the Rand Report on the Terrorist Strike on Mumbai, conducted by CII. (from ‘US policy on Pak terror has failed’, a newspaper report)

Looking at the saturation coverage in the Indian media, there is more to the story than the milk-of-US-kindness!

Saturation Coverage

India faces more 26/11-like threats: Former US envoy

‘US policy on Pak terror has failed’

India faces more terror attacks: US study

26/11 attack shows firearms assault can succeed: Blackwill

Blackwill offers FBI help

India can expect more terror attacks like the Mumbai carnage:US study

India to find its own solution to curb terrorism: Blackwill

Top ex-US diplomat likens Pakistan to Cuban missile crisis

India faces threat of a Mumbai rerun: US study

‘India likely to face more Mumbai-style attacks’

India faces threat of Mumbai like attack: US study

Blackwill warns of US pressure on J&K

Study predicts Mumbai rerun

India faces serious threat of a Mumbai rerun: US study

India faces more threats: US study

The World’s Most Reputable Companies

Reputation Institute collected survey data on 600 companies globally. Only people in a company’s home country and familiar with the company could rate it. So Americans could only rate American companies they knew about. It seems they don’t like their companies as much as Brazilians do.

Brazil had the second highest percentage of its participating companies ranked above the global average–76%–while 62% of American companies received pulse scores above the average. However it’s the people of India who love their companies the best. Of India’s 27 corporations ranked by the institute, 24 (89%) placed above the average. Seventeen of them landed in the top third of the list. (via The World’s Most Reputable Companies – Forbes.com).

This is interesting? How is this data to be read? Is this a Indic pattern where people are not imprisoned in large numbers, where people with criminal records get elected to the Parliament - and companies are trusted to such a significant extent!

The Indian Voter does it – again

The Indian Voter has again shown that he has a mind of his own – an independent mind. In spite of various allegations, which come in very superior sounding tones, the Indian Voter has displayed a few common patterns.

1. Risk Taking

The Indian Voter has not stepped back from electing new parties and leaders. The 1956 election, saw the Indian Voter challenge Nehru himself. The Left gained nearly 20% of the popular vote – and became the first Communist Government to be elected to power in the State of Kerala. Leaders like Ram Manohar Lohia, JB Kripalani and Jaya Prakash Narayan became legends in their own life time – in many ways, with greater regard and respect than Nehru himself.

These worked outside the ’system’ – and pioneered land reform, proved to be a check on the Nehruvian onslaught on Indian languages (along with the Dravidian parties) and sensitized the indifferent colonial-cadre bureaucrats to be more responsive and caring. To many this looked like Western Socialism (including the practitioners themselves), but it was nation building at a different level.

This election verdict is again a risk – that a victorious Manmohan Singh and hard working Rahul Gandhi may revert to the imperial ways of the old Congress Party. Earlier, the Indian Voter cured this imperiousness by underwriting the rise and use of regional parties. Purpose served, these regional parties have been sent back to the drawing board – to reinvent themselves.

2. Power and hubris

Time and again, the Indian Voter has chastened political leaders – whose hubris and power overwhelmed them. Nehru in 1956, Indira Gandhi in 1977, Rajiv Gandhi in 1989, BJP in 2004 at a national level and many at the state level.

In this election also, the hubris of the regional parties was broken. Sharad Pawar with a few MPs projected himself as Prime Ministerial candidate, as did some other bit players. Film stars like Chiranjeevi thought they could make a power grab by just announcing their candidature. In Maharshtra the Shiv Sena /MNS goons also got their comeuppance. To all these players, went out a clear message, from the Indian Voter.

The national alliance of BJP /NDA did not do too badly! It was the ‘Third + Fourth” Front that has been decimated. Possibly, this election was also about BJP hubris – with LK Advani appearing at every website. Similarly, the use of Varun Gandhi was also in bad taste – if not bad strategy.

3. No sops and no bones

To many, brought up on the Western schools of political understanding, the Indian Voter will vote for cash, sops, caste and allurements. This displays a profound disrespect for the Indian Voter – and greater ignorance.

The Indian State has been gradually and steadily retreating – and the Indian Voter has been at the forefront of this retreat. For all practical purposes health care in India has been privatized over the last 70 years. The vestigial State support for health care can also go, if the State cuts away its exclusive dependence on Western medical systems – and the complete collapse of Indian medical systems. The Western Voter will not let go of the subsidized health care system – while the Indian Voter has been gradually shifting the the private sector.

Similarly, the dependence on subsidized grain has been steadily decreasing. Inflation may give a false impression of increasing food subsidy bills. However, fact is that from about 75% of the population in the 1960-1970 decades, the dependance on subsidized food grains has reduced to 30%-40%.

Similarly, in other sectors too, the reduction of the role of the State is becoming apparent and welcomed – by the Indian Voter. The resistance is from the bureaucracy and the vested interests of Big Business.

In this election, Chandrababu Naidu in AP promised a cash transfer scheme to all families – even middle class families. His welfare statism has been soundly rejected.

4. Hard Work

Similar to Gandhiji’s Dandi march, which galvanised the nation, NTR Rama Rao’s epochal ‘Chaitanya Ratham’ rewrote politics in India. His 180 day campaign, in 1982, covering an estimated 75,000 km, across Andhra re-wrote Indian politics. For the first time, a political party of a few months, unseated a century old party.

It provided the inspiration for LK Advani’s ‘rath yatra’ in 1989 – which saw BJP gain a national following. YS Rajasekhara Reddy, the Andhra Chief Minister’s padayatra, which was ignored and ridiculed by the then TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu, (‘as Budabukkalodu, a village jester who wears outlandish clothes and asks for alms during Sankranti festival’) was patterned along similar lines. Covering 1500 km in 60 days, YSR’s padayatra saw Congress re-capture power in Andhra Pradesh after 20 years.

Rahul’ Gandhi’s 2009 campaign was no less. With limited use of helicopter’s and low media coverage, it was a combination of courage and the sheer drudgery that saw Congress come out on top – “winning in 60 constituencies out of the 106 in which Rahul campaigned”.

5. Negative campaigns

The 1969 election came closest to breaking the Congress rule in the pre-1977 India. Significant leaders from the Congress, split from the Congress, and formed the Congress (O). A highly negative campaign saw Indira Gandhi with a stunning victory in the 1971 election.

Her party program was summed up in the simple but highly appealing slogan, “Garibi hatao” (Remove Poverty). The old Congress, led by Desai, responded with the unimaginative, inane campaign slogan, “Indira Hatao ” (Remove Indira). (from The making of India By Ranbir Vohra)

The opposition to Indira – the ‘Grand Alliance’ consisting of the Congress (O), the Jan Sangh, Swatantra and Samyukta socialist parties - all knew that she was the issue in 1971, and they made the mistake of choosing a personalized campaign slogan to reflect this: ‘Indira Hatao’ (Remove Indira). Indira retaliated with the simplistic but effective battle cry of ‘Garibi hatao’. (from Indira By Katherine Frank).

Her speeches had simple logic. “Main kehtin hoon garibi hatao. Voh kehten hain Indira hatao. Ab faisla aap keejiye.”

LK Advani’s anti-Manmohan Singh campaign made the same mistake that Congress (O) made 40 years ago. PM Singh, who is seen as a well meaning, honest, ‘politician’ started looking better – after Advani’s attacks. Rahul Gandhi’s riposte, “have you ever seen a weak Sardar?’ killed this line of campaigning.

The legal processes against Indira Gandhi, by the 1977 Janata Party Government, was again seen as a vindictive and negative campaign, which started off Indira Gandhi’s comeback campaign. Indira Gandhi’s own negative campaign and ouster of NT Rama Rao, by engineering the split in TDP with Nadendla Bhasker Rao, ensured that Congress was out. Varun Gandhi’s abrasive campaign, in contrast to Rahul Gandhi’s inclusive agenda, was albatross around the BJP neck.

The Indian Voter will simply not accept negative campaigning.

Cause for optimism

LK Advani (?) and Manmohan Singh are possibly going to be the last colonial-era Prime Ministers of India. The next generation of political leaders will be Indians who have grown in the post colonial India. This vote is vote for consolidation – for the national parties and for performing administrations.

Colonialism is hearsay, propaganda, exaggerations – a second hand experience, to most young post-colonial Indians. Brought up on a diet of nation building, socialism, (opportunistic) English education, limited exposure to the rest of the world, they have seen rapid change. From an India, which was a ship-to-mouth basket case, to an emerging power, seems to be have been a facile and an easy experience – with little credit being given to Indian political leadership for managing the post-colonial Indian system.

India’s successes have been built on Indian models – and Western models have been singularly unsuccessful. How will India’s young leader’s face up to this challenge? Will they ‘fall into the trap’ of copying successful countries or take the easier path of renewing the Indic model, which may initially, seem difficult.

The continuity will be provided by the Indian Voter, who has seamlessly handed over political power – to tested and untested, to the imperious Indira Gandhi and the humble LB Shastri.

Indian Students Facing Attacks in Australia – BusinessWeek

A senior diplomat at the High Commission told ET that in the last six months, there have been 500 cases of assault on Indian students, registered by the police authorities across Australia. There are fears that such incidents of muggings, theft, racial abuse, car jackings and even murder are on the increase because of the economic meltdown and loss of jobs.

In fact, the Australian government’s $3.5-million campaign to attract Indian students-in an effort to combat recession-could remain a non-starter if the issue of racial attacks is not addressed. An estimated 95,000 Indian students joined Australian institutions of higher education in the first 11 months of 2008. (via Indian Students Facing Attacks in Australia – BusinessWeek).

Do we need this?

Indians are the most important part of work force planning for the entire West. To keep the declining Western economy (and aging populations) ticking, they need Indians – especially the English speaking countries of US of A, UK, Australia and Canada.

This is possibly the one thing that Indians need to understand!

Do Indians have to put up with this kind of insecurity and aggression? After all, (nearly all) Indians are legally entitled to stay in these countries – and in fact, being pursued by some of these countries. What action is the Australian Government taking to solve this problem? Nothing, as far as I can see. Some Indians have got together and a helpline was launched to protect Indian students from violence – reports the Hindustan Times.

In the US of A …

For the last few years, there has been a spate of killings of Indians in the US of A. The important part is these incidents is the common factors: -

1. Most of thee victims are from Andhra Pradesh (in India) – which sends the largest numbers of techies and students from India.
2. All the seven victims were students or young tech workers.
3. These have happened with regularity. Every 45-75 days.
4. None of these students had any criminal record or involvement in any criminal activity or groups.

Seven murders in 15 months is too many to be a co-incidence.

What’s happening?

Foreign workers being blamed for job losses in USA? Is there some racist group behind this. Is is the Ku Klux Klan? Indian groups had requested FBI to check this out.

Anybody out there?

Importance of Indian immigrants to the US of A

Each year, India loses more than 1,00,000 doctors, engineers, other post graduates to the US alone and another 3,00,000 to other Western countries – commonly, referred to as ‘brain drain.’

To get a real handle on this number, project this number to the 25-65 age group in the USA. At 100,000 students and professionals every year from India, there are nearly 3.5-4.0 million highly qualified Indians between the ages of 25-65 – holding up the US industry. The IRS of the USA processed under 100.5 million individual tax returns – from a US population of 300.5 million. Thus approximately 4% of the total US working population. Put another way, Indians comprise an estimated 10%-15% of the highly qualified and (highly paid) workforce in the US.

Who pays for this

The Indian tax-payer supports India’s higher education (English based) system to the tune of Rs.2,50,000 crores (US$60 billion). The rest of the world picks up these Indian assets at no investment – and the poor Indian tax payer continues to subsidize English language education which benefits the entrenched Westernized Indian elite. These well-trained, qualified young people at the start of their productive lives are lost to the West (and others).

What is the cost for the 300,000 people that India loses to the West each year? Just the direct cost to the Indian tax payer is US$ 2 billion, or Rs.10,000 crores annually.

India needs to end this subsidy to the West

The usefulness and transferability of utility would be highly reduced, if India were to completely use Indian languages in higher education. Indian investment in higher education would then start benefiting India – and the poor Indian tax payers. A recent report on ‘brain drain’ for India Government circulation did not even mention how the use of English language for higher education in India increases transferability of utility from India to richer English using academic systems – like the USA.

Hand-over English education to the private sector

The reason we’ve driven all the way to Neemrana … is the NIIT University that is taking shape in the shadow of the Aravallis here, a 100-acre campus that though still under construction, will, insists Pawar, be ready to welcome its first students — for courses in BTech, MTech and PhDs in computer science and engineering, educational technology, and bioinformatics and biotechnology — in September this year. “We grew from a two-week course,” says Pawar — this was in 1981when NIIT was launched — “to a year-long course in 1989 as a need-based response and franchising model to grow HR practices, innovation and breaking fresh ground.” It rode the IT boom, creating opportunities for skill-sets in, besides IT, banking, finance, insurance and management. “The path to higher education was always clear,” Pawar now nods. (via Breakfast with BS: Rajendra Pawar).

Backdoor privatization

The Vedanta industrial group is setting up a University in Orissa. From a campus at the new Lavassa township, Oxford is going to start offering courses. These and other represent the quiet backdoor ‘privatization’ of Indian higher education.

Hidden subsidies

Large tracts of lands are being acquired by the Government, and handed over for a pittance to the private sector. Soon, we will have competition between State Sector subsidized English education – and private sector subsidized education.

Who will help Indian languages get back on their feet

While Indian language Universities are struggling – for funding, respect, status, support, foreign Universities, using paper money, backed by the Bretton Woods fraud, will impose their ideas, culture, etc in India.

While the English speaking economic bloc is struggling, India is not focussing on the French, Spanish, Japanese, Chinese Blocs which are large, excellent opportunities.

This can be a way out …

This actually is a good way out. Theere is a significant demand for English language education – at least currently. This can be met by the private sector. In the meantime, the misdirected State subsidies can be gainfully used to help get Indian language education back on its feet.

In the not very long run, the state must get out of making uup the minds of its citizens.

Hillary Clinton on Humanitarian Aid to Pakistan - The White House, Press Office

it is fair to say that our policy toward Pakistan over the last 30 years has been incoherent. I don't know any other word to use. We came in in the '80s and helped to build up the Mujahideen to take on the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. The Pakistanis were our partners in that. Their security service and their military were encouraged and funded by the United States to create the Mujahideen in order to go after the Soviet invasion and occupation.

The Soviet Union fell in 1989, and we basically said, thank you very much; ... Their democracy was not secure and was constantly at risk of and often being overtaken by the military, which stepped in when it appeared that democracy could not work.

And so I think that when we ask that question it is fair to apportion responsibility to the Pakistanis, but it's also fair to ask ourselves what have we done and how have we done it over all of these years, and what role do we play in the situation that the Pakistanis currently confront.

... our new approach toward Pakistan is qualitatively different than anything that has been tried before. ... we support the democratically elected government, but we have to have a relationship where we are very clear and transparent with one another; where we have the kind of honest exchanges that have come out of our trilateral meetings, where we're sitting across the table and we're saying, what do you intend to do about what we view as an extremist threat to your country, which by the way, also threatens us.

... it is our responsibility to support the democratically elected government, to be a source of advice and counsel where requested, but also to step in with aid that can try to make this government as successful as possible in delivering results for the people of Pakistan. (via The White House - Press Office - Briefing by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Humanitarian Aid to Pakistan).

So much excitement ...

Is admission of 'truth' something that merits a celebration? Does obfuscation and cover-ups for the last 50 years, get 'white-washed' by an admission of 'guilt' - and a some paltry million dollars in 'aid' - outlined many times in many 2ndlooks and Quicktakes?

The Indian media is agog with this 'story'! And a section of the US media is worried about what all Hillary will 'admit'?

Not what the US does - but what will Pakistan do ...

That is important.

Will the Pakistan nation take charge. Will the Pakistani establishment ‘admit' the truth. Will they remove the cobwebs of self delusion? There is some ambivalence in Pakistan about their attitude towards India.

Modern Pakistan

The Pakistan nation is actually 5 parts – The army, the ISI, the politicians, the 22 families and then there are the rest. Some may want to add the fundamentalist clergy as the sixth element. And now there are fringe terrorist groups – like LeT also on this list. Mahbub ul Haq’s “22 families” speech in Karachi in 1968 highlighted the power and wealth of a few families in Pakistan.

No one in Pakistan talks to anyone. Each has contempt for the other four. And all five have separate agenda.

With Or Without The West

For 60 years, India has grown steadily - slowly, and in spite of the West.

India’s defense production, its nuclear program or its space program and its India’s software success are homegrown. As are its successes in industry, stockmarkets, education, films and television programming, its democracy and the rise of its middle class. In the nuclear industry, India’s thorium approach to nuclear energy design will possibly open new realms in nuclear arena. At various times, when India has been stuck, it has been the West that has pushed India further into a corner. Even in matters of foodgrain, when India was a user of PL-480 grain. Or for instance, the Kaveri jet engine or the cryogenic engines.

While our Manubhai is chasing the chimera of Western approval and panting and drooling to ’sit at the high table in the global comity of nations,’ the back yard, Manubhai is burning.

And Pakistan should possibly learn this one thing from India.

India’s Pakistan Fixation

Of course, the Indian part of the equation needs looking at, also.

September 11th, 2008. US President George Bush permitted US troops to take offensive actions against its ally, Pakistan – in the US War against terror! Indian news channels were elated – and it must have taken Arnab Goswami (of Times Now) a lot of self-restraint not to do a gig. It took 4 generations of Indian (and now part of Pakistan) leaders to throw out the West from the sub-continent. 60 years later, India is celebrating the return of the West, to the sub-continent. The most potent symbol of this is India’s Pakistan Fixation.

The Pakistan Fixation is a a cover-up of India’s laziness or lack of resolve. I don’t really believe that Pakistan has the focus or the persistence to do half the things that India imagines Pakistan is doing. In the last 20 years, India has lowered its guard – and has become further fixated on the Pakistan bogey. The Pakistan Fixation hides Indian ineptness at confronting the root of Pakistani problem – USA, amongst others.

Western Adventurism - The Imperative

Without slavery, the West does not enjoy the manpower edge that it had till 1900. The loss of colonies from 1900-1950 has taken away the resource base and captive markets for Western dominance. Now with the collapse of Bretton Woods, the opacity in financial systems is diminished. The welfare state has put a significant burden on an aging Western population.

With fading prowess on one side, and a resurgent Asia on the other, the US and EU are now at the cross roads. Is the West prepared to quietly fade away in the sunset?

Unlikely.

What Have We Achieved

60 years on, there is nothing to show for these border disputes. Dutifully, the Indians, Pakistanis and the Chinese glare at each other – over colonial border issues. These border issues are less than peripheral to our nations. We have allowed the past to hold our future as a hostage.

The past is extracting a ransom that we cannot afford to pay. Let us recognize our past for what it is – empty ballast that is dragging us down. Having achieved nothing on this front for the last 60 years, why do we wish to continue down that path? We need to see that going downhill is always easier than climbing the Himalayas.

The Detritus

As various colonial powers were forced out of various colonies, left behind was the garbage of colonialism. This post-colonial debris has become the ballast, that is dragging down many newly de-colonized countries.

Vietnam suffered from a prolonged war (1956-1976) – and finally peace had a chance after 20 years of war. Korea remains divided. The Cyprus problem between Turkey, Greece and the Cypriots has been simmering for nearly 100 years. The role of the Anglo Saxon Bloc, in Indonesia, the overthrow of Sukarno, installation of Suharto and finally the secession of East Timor is another excellent example. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict (1935 onwards) will soon enter its 75th year. The entire Arab-Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a creation of the Anglo-French-American axis. The many other issues in the West Asia and Africa are living testimony of the Western gift to the modern world.

Closer home is the Kashmir problem. After 60 years of negotiations, India-Pakistan relations have remained hostage to the Kashmir issue. Similarly, between China and India, the border issues remain 60 years after the eviction of Britain from India.

India and Pakistan must remember that the Pakistani armies and the Indian armies at the time of the 1948 Indo-Pak War, were under the command of British Generals. India’s Governor General , in 1948 was Mountbatten, who was removed after this mischief was done.

Pakistan special effects

Things become more difficult when leaders like Asif Ali Zardari dismiss written agreements with his coalition partners, PML (N) headed by Nawaz Sharf, claiming agreements were not”holy like the holy Koran.” Or when General Musharraf starts a Kargil War with a rogue army that is no longer under the command of the civilian authority.

2ndlooks and Quicktakes on Pakistan

Pakistan – a nation in fidayeen mode?

What should India’s counter terrorism plan look like …

Mumbai Massacre – The real blame and real culprits

India’s Pakistan Fixation

Terrorists And Counterfeit Indian Currency

For More Than 60 Years …

Indo Pak Relations – What Will It Take

India Lowers Guard

New Empire Builders – Neo-Cons Sneaking In

The Carving Of The Middle East

British Empire & The Anglo Saxon Bloc

Behind The Web Of Terror

Scenarios and Outcomes – Indian Elections 2009

Opinion Polls and India

The 2004 elections in India was a watershed - for opinion poll industry. After 20 years of work, the opinion poll industry thought that they had the models, the tricks, questionnaires and had the Indian Voter all figured out. 2004 changed that.

What looked like a certain victory for the BJP, turned out to be victory for the 'no hope' Congress Party - a surprise front runner. It was not just one opinion poll - but nearly half a dozen opinion polls that got it wrong. No wonder, this time around they, the opinion pollsters, were subdued when the Election Commission decided to finally implement the 'no-opinion-polls-during-elections' diktat.

Unlike most Westernized 'readers' and 'experts', 2ndlook believes that the Indian Voter has been a smart voter - who has taken risks with 'unknown' parties and given opportunities to 'risky' elements. This has ensured that the Indian Voter has a large electoral choice - compared to the typical two-horse towns that passes of as elections in other countries.

This elections seems to centre around four scenarios.

Scenario 1

Congress wins between 170-200 seats. Their allies win another 70-100 seats. At the higher end of the spectrum, the combine will easily form the Government. At the lower end, the UPA combine will fall short of about 30 seats. This may not pose a significant problem. This is of course subject to who the winners of the 70-100 seats in the Congress are. That will be the crucial factor.

1. If Mamta Banerjee wins 15-20 seats, getting additional 30 seats from the Left Parties will be difficult.


2. That may leave the Congress to look at the ADMK - if the DMK does not do well.


3. If the DMK also does well, then Andhra Pradesh will hold the key. Will TRS /TDP combine break up and TRS will join the Congress? Will Chiranjeevi upset the apple cart? Or is that the Congress will make these Andhra parties irrelevant.


4. NCP, Mulayam, Lalu and Paswan will possibly go quietly with the Congress in this scenario.


5. If Mamta does badly and so does DMK, then Congress will have easy time - as the Left and the Third Front may quietly fall in line and negotiate a good deal for themselves.

Scenario 2

BJP wins 170-200 seats. Their allies win another 70-100 seats.

1. The biggest worry for BJP will be the President. Who will the President give the first opportunity to - in case of a close result?


2. BJP will have a tougher time - as the Congress will try for the same allies.


3. BJP has an advantage with an inside track with TRS, BJD, ADMK. Unlike the Congress.


4. Will Shiv Sena rope in Sharad Pawar to join an NDA Government? Possible!


5. How much of a chance does BJP have with Mayawati? Considerable!


6. In this specific scenario, the big thing for the BJP will be the number of seats that the allies win.

Scenario 3

Congress and BJP get less than 150 seats each. One gets 130 - and the other gets 150! The Third and the Fourth Front get around 250 seats by themselves.

1. BJP has said that it may partner with Congress to form a ‘stable Government! A BJP leader has gone on record saying the same!
   NCP leader PA Sangma has independently suggested that since there is "not much difference between the economic and foreign policies of these two parties and that their coming together could make India a “different country”."
   


2. The other thing will be a Third Front Government - which is seeming improbable as the two main forces for a Third Front, the Left and Telugu Desam's Chandra Babu Naidu both seem to be doing badly. "Better a junior partner in a stable alliance like the UPA or NDA than a unstable Third Front" kind of thinking may win the day - and kill the Third Front.


3. The Third Front may gravitate around Mayawati - whose ‘sarvjan' ideology is very Indic - and unique. Unlike others, who are talking about reservations, only Mayawati talks about everyone's welfare. Her bit about ‘tilak, taraazu aur talwar ... teeno ko maar jootey chaar' is again something that is a very Indic and a welcome development.

Scenario 4

The most uncertain outcome.

Congress and BJP get between 140-165 seats each - leaving just about 220-260 seats for all others. None of the three Blocs are close to a majority. The Third and the Fourth Front get seats in the 2:1 ratio. BJP /Congress are not in a position to form the Government and neither do others!

Two possibilities - a rump party will form a Government depending on support from Congress or the BJP - a la Chandrasekhar, Charan Singh, Deve Gowda, IK Gujral et al. Or the BJP or Congress will cobble up a weak alliance - a Government that will bleed to death by a thousand cuts.

Getmo' ...

1. Nitish seeks special status for Bihar


2. Naveen Patnaik to back Cong govt at Centre


3. Mayawati stands by Third Front


4. Left ready to back Nitish as PM


5. Cong indicates willingness for Nitish's package formula


6. Did Maya ride to secret LK meet in M-800?


7. DMK or AIADMK? Cong plays it safe, waits for 16th


8. BJP eyes Naveen Patnaik & Chandrababu Naidu


9. Will Ms. Mayawati be PM, wonders India's Dalit capital


10. Less seats for Left won't make it drive hard bargain: Cong


11. Meeting with Rajnath was not political, says Amar Singh


12. Mad Woman Theory of Politics in India


13. No 2007 repeat, but Maya tally to rise


14. AGP wants Advani as next Prime Minister


15. Congress to emerge as single largest party: Rajasthan bookies


16. Congress may dump DMK, may not need Maya


17. The Kingmakers


18. Third Front a fractured front: Praja Rajyam

Italian capitalism … French Capitalism .. German Capitalism …

The Agnellis were more than Fiat’s controlling shareholders. They have been the de facto royal family of Italian capitalism. Gianni Agnelli, the patriarch who died in 2003, was at the centre of a web the cross-shareholdings that gave a small group of entrepreneurs and bankers disproportionate power over Italian industry. The group was called the “salotto buono” (literally “the fine drawing room”).

The downturn has been tough on some of the old powerbrokers. Mediobanca, the investment bank disproportionately powerful because of its shareholdings, reported a plunge in profits after taking E281m of writedowns on strategic stakes in Telecom Italia and RCS Mediagroup.

But the old network might be replaced by something worse: “Berlusconism”. Silvio Berlusconi is prime minister, the richest man in Italy and master of most of the country’s media ... Berlusconi has already meddled directly in the national airline, Alitalia and the national telephone operator, Telecom Italia. His indirect influence is even being felt in old bastions of financial power such as Mediobanca where his daughter recently won a board seat.

Italy did not do too badly with the “mixed” state-private economic model it followed postwar. But Berlusconi’s version seems to have a special twist. His record shows he likes talking about reform, but his actions reveal an unhealthy interest in furthering his personal empire. With Italian GDP predicted to shrink 4% this year, that approach is the last thing Italian business needs. (via Fiat's dealing will change Italian capitalism).

Public sector economies of Europe

The economies of France, Germany and Italy are practically run by public sector monopolies - or subsidized behemoths, who make survival of competitors difficult by their ability to sustain losses - based on Government largesse.

Spain and Britain have all but collapsed! Which way will the US jump - will it also go the public sector way - go the Spanish way? By the way, the national industry in Spain these days is prostitution!

Which bring me to another question!

The lure of 'capitalism' ...

Why is the West so keen on calling these publc sector, subsidy driven regimes as Capitalism? Capitalism dpended on looted capital and slave labour to prosper - resulting in the famous 'laissez faire' quip. Capitalists wanted and got ‘laissez faire’ capitalism – which was a ‘coda’ for unlimited slavery. The restrictions on laissez faire were actually restrictions on slaves.

Now under socialism, they get unlimited protection from 'destructive' competition. Which is being papered over by names like crony capitalism, free market capitalism. etc., etc.

Look at Spain and Britain

Spain's national industry today is prostitution. Britain is floating on the sewage of the Bretton Woods bilge! After the multi-trillion dollar bailout, which has just begun, and with more than US$4 trillion with China, Japan, Russia and India, neither is the outcome certain nor is the outlook bright.

Last but not the least, we must remember the power wielded by the Chartered Companies of Europe - another word for public sector. East India Company was a public sector company!

The Rest of the World needs to be careful of these public sector monsters!

Public sector or oblivion

During the Great Depression, more than 19 auto companies (similar to the number of banks today) were folded into the Big 3. The Big 3 lived to fight for another 70 years. In their death throes, the US Big Auto is likely to go the way European auto sector has gone - public sector or oblivion.

Saddam lives (through his words)

The way it looks, it will mean the Mother Of All Mergers. At which point, there is no team of accountants in the world who can figure out what is where, or what condition what is in? And then the evasions, the lies the obfuscation can continue for some more decades?

Which model will US follow - public sector or closure? Subsidies or welfare?

Real low ... real truth (seen an oxymoron like that?)

The real question - who will pay for it?

Not the Americans! No siree. Definitely not.

Neither the American super-rich or the American welfare-poor? Not the American tax payers or the American tax evaders? Not the American Whites or the American Blacks?

It is the Chinese, the Russians, Indians, Brazilians and above all the Africans will pay for this! They have done, what bankers call non-recourse lending! The Chinese, Russians, Indians, Brazilians and the Africans, have no recourse. Who will the Chinese go to, for redeeming their US$2 trillion?

The bankrupt US of A? Welcome to the real world.

A nation under banks, with justice for none

All this puts the SEC and the rest of the government in a horrible spot. It is a matter of public record that the law wasn’t followed, thanks to Cuomo’s disclosures last week. And yet the agencies and policy makers responsible for enforcing the law are probably powerless to do anything about it.

It would be nice to think that SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro might call for a sincere, thorough investigation. But there’s nothing in her professional background that suggests she has the spine or the nerve to take on a major financial institution, much less a former Treasury secretary or the sitting Fed chairman.

We probably won’t get any searching inquiries out of the banking industry’s elected overseers in Congress. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd took VIP loans from Countrywide Financial Corp, now a subsidiary of BofA. His counterpart in the House, Barney Frank, declared last July that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were “not in danger of going under,” about two months before they did.

That leaves you and me, the American public, with the uncomfortable realisation that we are slipping toward a state of lawlessness in this country, all in the name of saving our financial system by creating even bigger banks out of combinations of banks that were dangerously big already. This doesn’t inspire confidence. It destroys it. (via A nation under banks, with justice for none).

Fraud .. when people are in pain ...?

This is very similar to Joseph Kennedy’s shorting the market before The Great Depression. It has always been a wonder to me how could Joseph Kennedy, a bootlegger and a friend of the mafiosi could become SEC Chairman? And after that did happen, would a Great Depression not follow?

First, the world was hit by Big Oil and as though that was not enough, came the Big Banks!

Hank Paulson Should be investigated

It was always 2ndlook’s suspicion that Hank Paulson’s behaviour in the Lehman collapse is similar to Bootlegger Kennedy’s behaviour. And this now coming out all in the open!! JPMorgan was blamed for Lehman collapse. This was reported widely including in The Times of India.

US bank JPMorgan Chase stands accused of precipitating the collapse of American investment bank Lehman Brothers by freezing Lehman assets days before it filed for bankruptcy protection, the Sunday Times reported.

After 60 Days

While deciding on Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, WaMu, was Paulson looking at his future - 60 days later, when he would need a new job!

Was the collapse of Lehman a deal for a job with Goldman - or was it JP Chase? JPMorgan Chief Had Long drooled Over WaMu. While a lot of people were getting support, Paulson allowed Lehman to go under!

I wonder why?

Was he making it easier for his ex-employer Goldman? Is he helping out the JP Morgan – with WaMu and Bear Stearns?

Does Transparency International call this corruption - or is it par for the course?

The China Syndrome – The Times of India

post-reform the US will retain its de facto veto power with a 17 per cent share and the US, EU and Japan will together still control 53 per cent of IMF shares. Individually, the shares of US, Japan, UK and France will still be larger than China's share of under 4 per cent. Impatient with these little handouts, China has launched a multi-pronged campaign to claim a seat at the head of the table.

Shortly before the G20 summit, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the Chinese central bank, suggested that the dollar should be replaced by SDRs as the new reserve currency. The huge dollar reserves held by central banks and other global investors would be severely eroded if the dollar were to suddenly depreciate. Yet, these investors cannot easily diversify away from the dollar since this itself would trigger dollar depreciation. The Chinese are particularly concerned: an estimated $1 trillion out of their total reserves of around $2 trillion are held in dollar assets. The SDR exchange rate is a weighted average of exchange rates of the major convertible currencies. Accordingly, under Zhou's proposal, China and other countries could convert their reserves from dollars to SDRs at current exchange rates without any erosion in their value. via TOP ARTICLE | The China Syndrome - Editorial - Opinion - The Times of India).

Rather a good summary of the flux in global currency system - for someone who wants to understand the situation today. The last paragraph will be of interest to everyone - especially Indians.

The relative roles of different Asian currencies in this fund are yet to be determined, but clearly the Chinese yuan has arrived and the meltdown of the dollar as a reserve currency has begun. The US-led western alliance has two options before it. It can give China a leading role in the G7-dominated financial architecture or face an alternative architecture led by China. Heads i win, tails you lose. Meanwhile, India is yet to find a role for itself in this new great game.

US panel on religious freedom to visit India

The ‘2008 Status of Religious Freedom’ report has placed 12 States including China, Pakistan, Myanmar and Saudi Arabia as countries of particular concern.

“Concerning India, the Commission is not releasing its chapter today,” Tala Eid, USCIRF Commissioner told reporters on Friday on the occasion of release of the annual report. Eid is the first Muslim cleric appointed to the USCIRF.

“The Commission is planning to travel to India next month for the first time, which will give us the opportunity to gain perspective on the government’s response to communal violence that occurred in Orissa, Gujarat and elsewhere, as well as the ways in which India, the world’s largest democracy, endeavours to respect and to promote religious freedom,” Eid said. “The Commission looks forward to meeting with senior Indian government officials, representatives of India’s diverse religious communities and members of civil society,” Eid said.

Consequently, the Commission will release the chapter on India during this summer. “If, for any reason, the travel does not occur, we will move ahead and release the chapter,” he said. (via US panel on religious freedom to visit India).

How brazen can you get …

Over a hundred years between 1750-1850, more than 10-20 million Africans were brought as captives – and sold in the US to be used as forced slave labour. Slave markets and trade in slaves was abolished after many revolutions and revolts by the slaves.

For a hundred years after the US Civil War, the African American Americans were discriminated, segregated, disenfranchised, imprisoned – and now the US wants to come to India to examine Indian record against minorities? This is new level of brazenness.

The West with the lowest levels of ethnic diversity, now wants to preach to India – with the highest levels of ethnic and religious diversity!

Any one who wants to come to India – and issue propaganda or ‘factual’ reports should be allowed. That is does not behove a response from India.

But a legislative body? Like the US Congress! They have no business to come to India and ‘inspect’ India! Especially, when it comes from a country with about the worst records in ethnic diversity and tolerance.