Copenhagen and its aftermath

We did not get an agreement on 50% reductions in global emissions by 2050 or on 80% reductions by developed countries. Both were vetoed by China, despite the support of a coalition of developed and the vast majority of developing countries. Indeed, this is one of the straws in the wind for the future: the old order of developed versus developing has been replaced by more interesting alliances. (via The road from Copenhagen | Ed Miliband | Comment is free | The Guardian).

Old bulldog ... old tricks

Gordon Brown, The British Prime Minister declared, "today, together with Norway and Australia, the UK is taking a further step to a Copenhagen agreement: publishing a framework for the long-term transfer of resources to meet the mitigation and adaptation needs of developing countries." (Paris Hilton note, who the PM of Britain is!)

More interesting was when Europe went ahead and committed funds and disbursed carbon credits. Small amounts - but nevertheless a significant step! So, what gives! How come Europe was disbursing - not serious money, but more than pocket money, without using IMF, World Bank, et al. No UN! How come?

Anglo-Euro efforts

The joint trojan operation (Norway, Australia and UK + EU) against China (or was it India?) was immaculately pursued. Bernarditas de Castro Muller, former lead coordinator and negotiator for the G77 and China in Copenhagen, writing in the Guardian of UK, reported

The UK financed workshops in selected vulnerable countries and deployed climate envoys. One of its envoys told intransigent negotiators that the UK would mobilise a group of vulnerable countries to pressure the major developing countries – such as China, Brazil and India – into committing to emissions reductions, contrary to their obligations under the climate treaty.

The EU for example made sustained attempts to influence and pressure developing nations – something that only served to increase their cohesion. They bribed where they could, promising the same recycled financing and maybe more to come if countries bent to their demands. And they bullied when they could not bribe.

India's neighbours, like Maldives, Bangladesh were co-opted - as were countries, led people of Indian extract like Caribbean island of Guyana, Mauritius. The strategy was to isolate China and pair India with the 'vulnerble 14' - like Maldives, Guyana, Bangldesh, etc. For instance, alongwith Mohammed Nasheed, Bharrat Jagdeo in Guyana, was faultlessly pursued. Long ignored and isolated, countries like Guyana suddenly found themselves in the spotlight.

Agreeably surprised, they wondered how Guyana "received a disproportionate amount of coverage and access given its size for its progressive and leading stance on climate change." Time magazine nominated Guyanese president Bharrat Jagdeo, as one of Heroes of the Environment 2008. This year Time magazine included Mohammed Nasheed in its Heroes of the Environment 2009. It was also announced,

Stabroek News in Guyana has confirmed that President Bharrat Jagdeo has been nominated for the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to combat climate change. He was nominated by Professor David Dabydeen, Director of the Centre for Caribbean Studies at the University of Warwick.

The Commonhealth Heads meeting a few weeks before Copenhagen was supposed to seal this 'alliance.' Intriguingly, the French President Sarkozy joined the Commonwealth Summit, with Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen and UN Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon - and proposed a US$10 billion fund for climate change. Just imagine the French joining in a Commonwealth meet (a first, I would think).

Possibly it was the US efforts which made China and India stand together at Copenhagen.

Why the US did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol?

The political undertones of climate control talks are unravelling. The first major smoke signal was when the USA refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol - while talking about global warming and climate change at the same time. Sometimes puzzling and wholly beyond understanding! The lip service paid by the US to climate change can be best summarized by a Hindi idom हाथी के दांत, खाने के एक, दिखाने के एक. Meaning, elephants have two sets of teeth - one for actual use and another for show.

The third element in the multilateral equations set was the efforts made by Bush /Obama to get India and China to 'get on the climate change band wagon' with the US. The Chinese 'unilateral' announcement of 'voluntary' carbon intensity cut after Obama's trip to China a few days before Copenhagen was a signpost of this unusual 'alliance'. India followed soon thereafter with its own 'voluntary' carbon intensity cuts. One of the justifications of Bush's nuclear deal with India was climate change.

This US master-stroke of Obama+BASIC meeting, ensured that the “only breakthrough was the political coup for China and India in concluding the anodyne communiqué with the United States behind closed doors, with Brazil and South Africa allowed in the room and Europe left to languish in the cold outside.”

In hindsight, US covert resistance to climate change was actually resistance to the monopolisation by the EU on the climate change agenda and campaign. Under the garb of climate change, EU was trying to do what US did to the world, under the garb of poverty elimination, population control, Bretton Woods in the aftermath of WW2.

What were the BASIC countries resisting

Writing from a Western standpoint, John Lee, in the Guardian, of the UK, faults China for not allowing,

"Teams of international economists, scientists, inspectors and statisticians roaming China to gather information on carbon emissions and reduction initiatives ... reporting to political masters in America and Europe ... (on) the further problem of cheating in current and future carbon reduction schemes." (ellipsis and linking text in brackets mine).

Ed Milliband, Britain's Energy Minister, younger brother of British foreign secretary, David Miliband, writing for the Guardian,

"We cannot again allow negotiations ... to be hijacked in this way. We will need to have major reform of the UN body overseeing the negotiations and of the way the negotiations are conducted (for this) global campaign, co-ordinated by green NGOs, backed by business ... we must keep this campaign going and build on it. It needs to be more of a genuinely global mobilisation, taking in all countries ...this year has proved what can be done, as well as the scale of the challenge we face. (ellipsis and emphasis mine).

Indeed much has been done.

Face behind the mask

Faceless NGOs, without accountability to anyone, were able to bring global political leadership, to the very brink of an agreement. Like Milliband's boss, Gordon Brown remarked, "the political will to secure the ambitious agreement ... comprehensive and global agreement that is then converted to an internationally legally binding treaty in no more than six months." was very much there. The same 25,000 people (25 countries x 1000 powerful people) who rule over the G8-/OECD wanted the poor to invite these 25,000 to have undue and illegitimate oversight over our ‘poor’ lives – in the name of climate change.

To deliver more than 600 crore (6 billion) of humanity to an agreement that would have allowed the likes of the Milliband Brothers (and their NGO 'partners-in-crime') to pry into our lives, our affairs and dictate our very existence - with our own consent. Without recourse, with no checks and balances. With large amounts of unaccounted money at their disposal. To decide how we live our lives. Under a system, that would have re-invented colonialism, in a way wholly unknown to us earlier.

Any deal was a bad deal

Last time around, India was called the deal breaker at Doha. This time around, it is China. Who gets called, what by whom, may seems unimportant! But as my grandfather reminded me many times, बद हो जाओ, लेकिन बदनाम नहीं (Beware of getting a bad reputation).

The Guardian, goes onto say, "Only China is mentioned specifically in Miliband's article but aides tonight made it clear that he included Sudan, Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Cuba, which also tried to resist a deal being signed." Sadly India is not included in this list of 'deniers' who are, as Gordon Brown puts it, "anti-science and anti-change environmental Luddites who seek to stand in the way of progress."

How I wish India was blamed for the failure of Copenhagen!

De-construction of climate change by 2ndlook

• Climate change – How India is falling for propaganda


• Climate Change at Copenhagen – Britain mounts a Trojan operation


• Indian cows were blamed for global warming!


• US Euro Clubs hobble Third Wold


• Climate head steps down over e-mail leak


• NASSCOM wakes after 15 months


• PR Stunts – The Maldives underwater meeting


• Indian to head Amnesty


• Amartya Sen at the Aspen Institute India's Conference in New Delhi - WSJ.com


• Climate change – ‘Time for Plan B’ says Nigel Lawson

Amartya Sen at the Aspen Institute India's Conference in New Delhi - WSJ.com

India's approach should have been to push for what it considered to be a "fairer, juster deal" on climate change that all parties can agree to -- and if that means mandatory cuts, then so be it. "To say under no circumstances will we accept mandatory restraints is ridiculous," he said. "Our position should be we will accept a just agreement, an agreement that creates a better world." He said he was particularly disturbed at one point during the Copenhagen deliberations to see African and other developing nations side with China on the ramifications of an increase in global temperatures and to see India on the side of the U.S. and western Europe when "we have been traditionally the spokesman of the underdog." (via Snapshots from the Aspen Institute India's Conference in New Delhi - WSJ.com).

Inside Indian bedrooms

60years ago, an assault was made by foreign 'observers' into Indian bedrooms. Foreign 'observers'

1. Tied 'development aid' to India's population control.


2. Trained Indian 'health workers' to control India's human reproductive behaviour.


3. Paid for by Western Governments, soon after that, we had 'health workers' fanning out across the Indian country-side, conducting vasectomies /tubectomies on India's (especially poor) population.

It did not matter then, who the 'observers' were - foreign or Indian. Neither does it matter now. What matters is someone's monitoring. And I don't like that at all. Even if it done by a Brown.

Mirror, Mirror on the wall

Who is the most dubious of them all? And Carbon emissions is a very dubious subject. Sometime back, cows (read that as India) were targetted for carbon and methane emission. Will it be Indians and human beings next? Rhetorical you think?

Australia proves how this logic works. For Australians this has become a habit. They decided recently, in Australia to kill thirsty camels. Some time back, they were killing cane toads. Before that it was kangaroos. Before that it was dingos. And before that were humans.

Like last time

This time around, based on similarly dubious research, India is being pressured to accept monitoring of climate change. Climate control and the Copenhagen meet is that fast growing octopus which is spreading out. It tentacles can be found in all kinds of places. One of its tentacles has reached India - which was any way the target. The Aspen Institute, India (AII).

To 'soften' up India, the AII organized a gab-fest. Who could be a good candidate for a gathering of such worthies? At least, Nobel Prize winners. Rajendra Pachauri? Al Gore? Any better candidates. Yes.

Amartya Sen - who 'graced' this gab-fest, hosted by Aspen Institute, India (AII) - an 'associate' of Aspen Institute, USA. Amartya Sen is tenderizing up the media, the academia, to accept Copenhagen outcome - which is primarily International 'monitoring' of India's climate control and administration. Does Amartya Sen raise any of these questions? For his efforts to weaken Indian position and interests, Amartya Sen will soon qualify as a unique category of Indian passport holder - Non-Resident, Non-Indian, holding an Indian passport.

The AII-Board of Trustees reads more like Who's Who of Indian industry - Bajaj, Birla, Godrej, Thapar et al.

The carbon credits 'opportunity'

The rich fat-cats are already licking the chops. Estimates have been put out that the 'carbon-credits business s worth Rs.28,000 crores.

Interestingly, note one thing very carefully. No one, but none, is talking up about cleaning up on pollution. No industry is being asked to reduce their pollutants (think of inks, dyes and chemicals), manage by-products (sulphur from petroleum refining), eliminate contamination (paper plants), decrease waste (electronics), recycle (just imagine the number of mobile phone batteries).

Dada Amartya, you got a memory lapse! How come you don't talk about any of this?

Polluter cleans – not pay

One of the fundamental flaws of the Kyoto Protocol was the principal of ‘polluter pays’. Based on retributive justice logic, it was something that was bound to fail. Instead it should have been based on the Indic justice principle – ameliorative and make good. The operating principle should have been ‘polluter cleans and does not pollute again.’

Camels ... in the kingdom of heaven

Copenhagen is for the rich (from poor countries), by the rich (from rich countries) to the rich (from poor and rich countries) – and may the poor and common be damned. And one thing you can be absolutely, completely, definitely, positively, wholly sure of.

The poor will never, ever, at all, in any manner, benefit from climate control.

Copenhagen Talks End With Agreement, But No Binding Deal - AlterNet

Environmental writer and activist Bill McKibben of 350.org voiced his disapproval. (and) summarized what Obama accomplished:

He formed a league of super-polluters, and would-be super-polluters. China, the U.S., and India don't want anyone controlling their use of coal in any meaningful way.

(via Copenhagen Talks End With Agreement, But No Binding Deal: So, How Screwed Are We? | Environment | AlterNet).

QED

On Aug 14, 2009, a Quicktake post wondered if this entire climate change and global warming had something to do with coal-fired power plants.

Bill McKibben's peeve does prove that this is indeed the case.

Now, coal is the cheapest way to generate electricity. Looking at the shortfall in electricity, and Indian consumers' ability to pay, coal is the answer.

To low costs, add the fact that India has coal reserves that will last for the next 100 years - at least. But, coal-generated electricity, will also makes India industrially competitive.

And we don't want that, do we? Right, Billy Boy!

Inside Indian bedrooms

60years ago, an assault was made by foreign ‘observers’ into Indian bedrooms. Foreign ‘observers’

1. Tied ‘development aid’ to India’s population control.


2. Trained Indian ‘health workers’ to control India’s human reproductive behaviour.


3. Paid for by Western Governments, soon after that, we had ‘health workers’ fanning out across the Indian country-side, conducting vasectomies /tubectomies on India’s (especially poor) population.

It did not matter then, who the ‘observers’ were – foreign or Indian. Neither does it matter now. What matters is someone’s monitoring. And I don’t like that at all.

Even if the monitors have brown skins (my liking for brown skin notwithstanding). Even if it comes with a recommendation from Nobel prize winner, Amartya Sen. How Indian power producers generate electricity is our business.

Getting a handle on the Indian economy is the second and related part of the agenda.

An agenda, I don't like.

All that nice, fresh, white newsprint ...

Wasted!

Just the amount of newsprint that has been devoted to climate change and global warming must have raised temperatures (going by the 'warmers' calculations and estimates) enough to make this debate of questionable value. To that add, the amount of gimmickry and media overdrive (through slick PR) that raises many doubts and questions.

Hush, boy! Do not even mention 'scientific manipulation'.

Just look at the record.

The most prominent and vocal votary of Climate Change was Al Gore - who was promptly awarded the Nobel Prize. The recruitment of Maldives and the positioning of President Mohammed Nasheed was again a very slick operation. The underwater Maldives cabinet meeting had a interesting story.

Maldivian officials said the idea to hold the attention-grabbing underwater cabinet meeting came from President Mohamed Nasheed when he was asked by an activist group to support its “environmental day” action on October 24.

“The 350.org group asked if the Maldives can hold an underwater banner supporting environmental day,” an official from the president’s office said.

“The president thought for a while and then came up with the idea to have an underwater cabinet meeting.” (via Maldives cabinet rehearses underwater meeting).

Propping up Maldives as ‘fifth’ column was done over the last more than 20 years. Based on excellent PR and media management skills, the Maldives was the trojan horse loosed on the G77+Basic grouping.

350.org is rather well armed on the PR front – with a specific agency for South Asia itself. The PR agency for the Maldives Travel and Tourism Authority McCluskey International does seem to either bask in reflected glory – or is hinting at the authorship of this stunt. The Maldives climate change campaign seems to be headquarted in Britain also.

Been there and done that

The hallmark of the Maldives’ climate change campaign has been it slick PR. Dramatic statements, intriguing sound bites, the Maldives’ campaign was beyond the common bureaucratic ‘creature’ – much less a Maldives’ bureaucrat. This is consistent and in line with Al Gore’s media and public relations management – which won the PR agency, the campaign of the year award. And Al Gore the Nobel Prize.

All this is much like, how from the early 1950’s to the late eighties, the Western world created hysteria regarding ‘population explosion’ in India and China. Enormous pressures were brought onto the Chinese and Indian Governments to ‘control’ their populations.

Same game, different name! Doesn't wash. Just like last time.

Related Posts

• Climate change – How India is falling for propaganda


• Climate Change at Copenhagen – Britain mounts a Trojan operation


• Indian cows were blamed for global warming!


• US Euro Clubs hobble Third Wold


• Climate head steps down over e-mail leak


• NASSCOM wakes after 15 months


• PR Stunts – The Maldives underwater meeting

We can challenge India on Copenhagen goals: US – Global Warming – Environment – Home – The Times of India

White House senior advisor David Axelrod told CNN that the Copenhagen Accord would allow US verification. "Now China and India have set goals. We are going to be able to review what they are doing. We are going to be able to challenge them if they do not meet those goals," Axelrod said.

While this was probably intended to keep the enraged constituencies of US labour unions at bay, who had insisted that Barack Obama come back with a commitment from India and China for carbon cuts and their verification, these statements will only fuel a fire in countries like China and India. (via We can challenge India on Copenhagen goals: US - Global Warming - Environment - Home - The Times of India).

Like last time

This time around, based on similarly dubious research, India is being pressured to accept monitoring of climate change. Climate control and the Copenhagen meet is that fast growing octopus which is spreading out. It tentacles can be found in all kinds of places. One of its tentacles has reached India – which was any way the target. The Aspen Institute, India (AII).

To ’soften’ up India, the AII organized a gab-fest. Who could be a good candidate for a gathering of such worthies? At least, Nobel Prize winners. Rajendra Pachauri? Al Gore? Any better candidates. Yes.

Amartya Sen – who ‘graced’ this gab-fest, hosted by Aspen Institute, India (AII) – an ‘associate’ of Aspen Institute, USA. Amartya Sen is tenderizing up the media, the academia, to accept Copenhagen outcome – which is primarily International ‘monitoring’ of India’s climate control and administration. Does Amartya Sen raise any of these questions? For his efforts to weaken Indian position and interests, Amartya Sen will soon qualify as a unique category of Indian passport holder – Non-Resident, Non-Indian, holding an Indian passport.

The AII-Board of Trustees reads more like Who’s Who of Indian industry – Bajaj, Birla, Godrej, Thapar et al.

The carbon credits ‘opportunity’

The rich fat-cats are already licking the chops. Estimates have been put out that the ‘carbon-credits business s worth Rs.28,000 crores.

Interestingly, note one thing very carefully. No one, but none, is talking up about cleaning up on pollution. No industry is being asked to reduce their pollutants (think of inks, dyes and chemicals), manage by-products (sulphur from petroleum refining), eliminate contamination (paper plants), decrease waste (electronics), recycle (just imagine the number of mobile phone batteries).

Dada Amartya, you got a memory lapse! How come you don’t talk about any of this?

Polluter cleans – not pay

One of the fundamental flaws of the Kyoto Protocol was the principal of ‘polluter pays’. Based on retributive justice logic, it was something that was bound to fail. Instead it should have been based on the Indic justice principle – ameliorative and make good. The operating principle should have been ‘polluter cleans and does not pollute again.’

Camels … in the kingdom of heaven

Copenhagen is for the rich (from poor countries), by the rich (from rich countries) to the rich (from poor and rich countries) – and may the poor and common be damned. And one thing you can be absolutely, completely, definitely, positively, wholly sure of.

The poor will never, ever, at all, in any manner, benefit from climate control.

Indian to head Amnesty

Salil Shetty (48), Director of the Millennium Development Goals Campaign, is set to become the Secretary-General of Amnesty International. Salil Shetty will be the first Indian to head the international secular non-government organisation.

An alumnus of St Joseph’s Indian High School and St Joseph’s College of Commerce, Bangalore, Shetty was President of the College Student Union in 1979. He did his Masters in Business Administration from the Indian Institute of Management in Ahmedabad and went on to earn a distinction in a Masters of Science in Social Policy and Planning from the London School of Economics.

He joined the United Nations in October 2003 as Director of the Millennium Campaign ... Before joining the UN, Shetty was Chief Executive of ActionAid. (via B’lorean to head Amnesty).

Citius, altius, fortius

Amartya Sen wins the Nobel prize. For research on the Great Bengal Famine. And what does he do - he papers over the entire British policy in Bengal during WW2 - which resulted in the Great Bengal Famine.

The Congress in India, the UMNO in Malaysia and the Kenya African National Union, better known as KANU, have actively white-washed colonial genocides, It took a Catherine Elkins to partially unmask the killings during the Mau Mau uprising. The genocide in 1857 Indo-British War has been estimated by Amaresh Mishra's book. The killings in Malaysia have remained un-investigated and unexposed.

According to the official figures, Mau Mau killed fewer than 100 whites and about 1,800 Kikuyu loyalists while some 11,000 Kikuyu were killed in return. Both Elkins and David Anderson regard these figures with derision — Anderson points out that the mass hanging of 1,090 Mau Mau had no parallel anywhere in Malaya, Indochina or even Algeria, while Elkins suggests that the real number of deaths may have run into hundreds of thousands. (From The Sunday Times, January 9, 2005, Britain's Gulag by Caroline Elkins; Histories of The Hanged by David Anderson, REVIEWED BY R W JOHNSON).

Rajinder Pachauri, head of the IPCC, which won the Nobel Prize, now similarly promotes the 'interests' and the agenda of the climate change lobby. Promoting, protecting the climate change agenda, to the exclusion of Indian interests.

Arundhati Roy's became a 'force' to reckon with - after getting the a large advance (media reports change from 500,000 to, 1 million) and winning the Booker Prize. No prize, for guessing which country gives out the prize. Her promotion of the 'liberal-progressive' agenda - for instance, her Kashmir ideas keep the debate in India from becoming rational or useful to India.

The most elite of Indians

Today, Amartya Sen returns the 'favour' of the Nobel Prize by promoting Western agenda and ideas. In the climate control debate, he proposes that India should 'welcome' international, inspection, audit, intervention and dictation. Rajinder Pachauri defends the fraud of climate change. To cover up the climate change fraud, he indulges in mudslinging against the East Anglia hackers. Arundhati Roy thinks that consigning another 2 crore (twenty million) Kashmiris into the Pakistani hell is OK - based on terrorist activities of some 2000 jihadis. I am very happy for Salil Shetty, except for one thing. The question that springs to my 'provincial' mind' (aka मोटी, देसी और मंद बुद्धि) is ...

Is Salil Shetty joining this 'elite' club?

Climate change - 'Time for Plan B' says Nigel Lawson

The world's political leaders, not least President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Gordon Brown, are in a state of severe, almost clinical, denial. While acknowledging that the outcome of the United Nations climate-change conference in Copenhagen fell short of their demand for a legally binding, enforceable and verifiable global agreement on emissions reductions by developed and developing countries alike, they insist that what has been achieved is a breakthrough and a decisive step forward. (via Nigel Lawson: Time for Plan B - WSJ.com).

The real issue

For the first time, in all the coverage that climate change has seen (dare I say, over-coverage), here is something that was 'honest', 'open', 'clear' and 'transparent'. In more informal surroundings I would have used the word brazen.

First - He, Nigel Lawson, starts of with clearly defining that the G8/OECD world wanted "a legally binding, enforceable and verifiable global agreement on emissions reductions by developed and developing countries alike". Awesome.

The same 25,000 people (25 countries x 1000 powerful people) who rule over the G8-/OECD wanted the poor to invite these 25,000 to have undue and illegitimate oversight over our 'poor' lives - in the name of climate change. While the rest of the world was pussyfooting around this issue, here we find Nigel Lawson 'outing' the real agenda. Good work, Nigel.

Reaching out

Second - He was honest to admit what his real peeve was. He thinks that the "only breakthrough was the political coup for China and India in concluding the anodyne communiqué with the United States behind closed doors, with Brazil and South Africa allowed in the room and Europe left to languish in the cold outside."

If he can feel bad about that, we can surely feel good about it. Since, this is the season for cheer and goodwill, let me confess ...

I do, at least.

They don't want us to compete

Third - He also very simply goes to the nub of the matter.

"The reason we use carbon-based energy is not the political power of the oil lobby or the coal industry. It is because it is far and away the cheapest source of energy at the present time and is likely to remain so, not forever, but for the foreseeable future."

And dear Nigel, we cannot allow access to India-China to get that benefit? Can we!

Creating fifth columnists

Fourth - He goes onto questioning the "2006 Stern Review, quite the shoddiest pseudo-scientific and pseudo-economic document any British Government has ever produced". And this was the same Sir Nicolas Stern, who the Indian Government wanted to /did consult. And he does quite simply capture the debate well when he says "any assessment of the impact of any future warming that may occur is inevitably highly conjectural, depending ... on the uncertainties of climate science ... (and) on the uncertainties of future technological development. So what we are talking about is risk".

We can do business with such people

Fifth - He also fires a warning shot at China and India with "The risk of a 1930s-style outbreak of protectionism—if the developed world were to abjure cheap energy and faced enhanced competition from China and other rapidly industrializing countries that declined to do so—is probably greater than any risk from warming."

Your 'great' poet, Sheikh-speare, put it well. Fools rush in where angels fear to tread. You want a trade war, Nigel Boy? You got it!!

Just tell us where and when!

He then goes onto draw

"the outlines of a credible plan B are clear. First and foremost, we must do what mankind has always done, and adapt to whatever changes in temperature may in the future arise.

This enables us to pocket the (many) benefits of any warming while reducing the costs ... Addressing these problems directly is many times more cost-effective than anything discussed at Copenhagen. And adaptation does not require a global agreement, although we may well need to help the very poorest countries (not China) to adapt ...

... it is not going to be easy to get our leaders to move to plan B. (as) calling a halt to the high-profile climate-change traveling circus risks causing a severe conference-deprivation trauma among the participants. If there has to be a small public investment in counseling, it would be money well spent.

The speed with which the Plan B has come out means that they (G8+OECD) have given up on Plan A, which is good news. Since, their strategy did not work, what Plan B means is that they will go one country after another. Tackle them individually.

The West + Japan may make one last attempt in Mexico. If unsuccessful, they may drop the entire climate change agenda.

Which is good news.

I am presuming guilt

In the last six months

In the last 6 months, 3 investigations related to people with Indian background, in US Courts, have advanced to the stage of prosecution and two have matured to sentencing in US Courts. The first was the Anand Jon case, the second is the Vikram Buddhi's case. The third case, Rajarathnam's, let us examine later in the post. Legal and technical merits of the Anand Jon and Vikram Buddhi's case I will not go into. Let's presume that these two are guilty, fully and completely.

Crime and punishment

For the purpose of this post, let us not say 'alleged' crime - and assume that the due process of law did unravel the crime and fix culpability. SO, what was Vikram Buddhi's crime?

A US newspaper, Post-Tribune reported that Vikram Buddhi, as per Federal prosecutors, had posted threatening messages on

a Yahoo message board in late 2005 and early 2006. The postings mocked American foreign policy and made threats against Bush and other officials. "GO IRAQIS!... KILL GW BUSH... AND KILL LAURA BUSH... KILL DICK CHENEY THE WHITE FAT PIG," one said.

How serious is that a crime?

The CIA has been assassinating foreign heads of State with approval of the US Government for decades now. I am sure in the 8 years of Bush Presidency, there must have been 100,000 /10,000 /1000 messages in conversations, chat rooms, bulletin boards, blogs, comment sections, calling for George Bush's head.

Incidents, precedents, antecedents

To the best of my knowledge, no one else, has been prosecuted for this crime. Just Vikram Buddhi alone. Has there been a case like in US Courts like this before? None that any news reports linked here have cited. Vikram Buddhi's state-appointed lawyer, Arlington Foley, thinks,

According to what the law is, the guidelines are it was an appropriate and fair sentence. May be Mr. Buddhi does not think so. But I think it was well thought of and well reasoned by the judge Actually I though that the judge was kind to Mr. Buddhi.

By Dr. Buddhi Kotasubbarao, Vikram Buddhi's father draws a interesting parallel between USA and Iranian judicial outcomes - much like the Quicktake on a similar situation. He interestingly, highlights how a 'friend of India', Hillary Clinton, spoke up for Roxana Saberi - but is missing in action for Vikram Buddhi. Prominent US newspapers like Washington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal or the LA Times - none thought it fit to cover this trial.

Rules can change

Blogger Hal Turner's case is a good parallel to Vikram Buddhi's case. Hal Turner, posted messages on his blog, calling for killing of judges. The twist in the case happened when Hal Turner claimed that he

received thousands of dollars from the Federal Bureau of Investigation to report on neo-Nazis and white supremacist groups and was sent undercover to Brazil, according to a report on Sunday by The Record of Bergen County.

Mr. Turner also claims the F.B.I. coached him to make racist, anti-Semitic and other threatening statements on his Internet radio show, but the newspaper also found that many federal officials were concerned that his audience might follow up on his violent speech.

The newspaper reviewed numerous government documents, e-mail messages, court records and almost 20 hours of jailhouse interviews with Turner.

The 12 man jury could not agree to Hal Turner's guilt - and mistrial was declared. Across the continent, in Europe, in the case case of child-rapist Roman Polanski,

the director’s sister-in-law Mathilde Seigner hinted that the leader (Nicholas Sarkozy) has been instrumental to the recent development.

“I wouldn’t go so far as to say that it is thanks to the President that Roman has been freed, but he has been super. The President has been very effective,” Times Online quoted her as telling Le Parisien newspaper.

Sarkozy had earlier expressed his views on the director being held on a US warrant for having unlawful sex with a 13-year-old girl in 1977. (via Nicolas Sarkozy ‘helped’ Roman Polanski get bail).

Joseph Wambaugh on Hollywood

For years now, I have been avid reader of Joseph Wambaugh – a policeman turned writer. His comedies, wrapped in (mostly) LA or (sometimes) New York milieu, are in the style of Raymond Chandler under halogen lamp. The darker areas get better light. The chrome glints more. Glamour quotient gets mixed with large doses of warmth and understanding. Unlike Chandler, Wambaugh’s is never judgmental – which make his characters very real.

I read Wambaugh’s Glitter Dome, and twenty years later I remember one of his interesting observations on Hollywood,

Parking, not pussy, is at a premium around these parts, they said.

Wambaugh captures the politics of Hollywood in The Glitter Dome By Joseph Wambaugh, page 46

Sex, Cinema and Fashion

Hollywood, Bollywood (a patronizing name by which Indian film industry calls itself), haute couture businesses have a rather blase attitude about sex. Hence, to hold Hollywood to ordinary behavioural norms, has a puritanical air about it. In the Polanski affaire, the alleged victim, Samantha Geimer, wants the case closed.

But anyway, coming to why this story gets me curious, is why did Anand Jon, a haute couture designer get such a harsh sentence. Unwilling /semi-willing /actively willing sex in Hollywood /Bollywood /haute couture businesses is what (I have been given to believe) is normal. I mean these days, stars /starlets ‘leak’ sex tapes on the internet.

Remember two things. We are talking about such 'abnorml sex, in the pornography capital of the world - the USA. And, two. No one has ever been seriously prosecuted, convicted and sentenced – as Anand Jon has been!

Where is the balance

Joseph Brooks, ("You light up my life", the 1977 hit is his claim to fame), an Oscar winning Hollywood 'director', has been accused of a luring more than 'victims' to the 'casting couch.' He is out on bail - while the prosecution 'builds' its case. Will he get more than a rap on his knuckles? (St. PT Barnum, our resident propaganda slayer has recommended that) Brokelads offer 17-3 odds against Brooks getting a jail sentence of more than 12 months.

Coming back to the Anand Jon case. Is it the first time that models have tried advancing their career by sleeping with designers? Has it not happened before? Phil Spector, Juror No. 6, himself murder accused (and later convicted) a movie-industry executive, should have known better.

I wonder what is it that Anand Jon did, (part from the usual rape, willing/unwilling sex industry routine) which brought down the entire American judicial establishment onto him like ton of bricks.

But Anand Jon is guilty - and an Indian. On these two things, there is no doubt (in my mind). That gets him a minimum of 59 years in prison.

On Wall Street

The case of the Sri Lankan Rajarathnam has similar smell to it. The US prosecuting authority, Preet Bharara, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, alleges that the Galleon Fund made some US$20 million out of this insider trading. Galleon Fund (more than US$5 billion in assets under management) probably spent more than US$20 million on tea, coffee, espresso, soda, Evian and paper napkins. Rajrathnam’s own net worth was estimated by “Forbes” to be US$ 1.3 billion

Is there any sense, any balance to these cases. Especially, when what constitutes 'insider' trading itself is so vague and nebulous!

Is Preet Bharara, indulging in reverse ‘affirmative action’ by prosecuting Rajarathnam? Is A 'Whiter-than-White' Preet Bharara trying to prove that he is colour blind?

“If you’re a wealthy trader, you aren’t special,” Bloomberg quoted Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara as saying at a press conference. “Knock on our door before we come knocking on yours.”

What Preet Bharara should do is investigate Hank Paulson, the Former Treasury Secretary, under whose watch many bankruptcies happened conveniently in favour of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.

The world's largest prison population

The US with the world's largest prison population, I am sure, has many other cases of such judcial 'zeal'! So, Vikram Buddhi, Anand Jon and P Rajarathnam are definitely not an exception. But, it is possibly the first time that three people from an Indian background were targetted in a similar manner in such a short time. Though, remember that Rajarathnam is not an Indian, but a Sri Lankan.

For Indians, used to being lionized in Western press, should look at the emerging threats of this differential judicial treatment - and factor for the same.

Pokhran-II: an H-bomb disaster

China would be undeterred by our A-bomb arsenal of the yields indicated above. So we reiterate our considered view — shared by the majority of our nuclear scientists, strategic analysts and, above all, our military — that a solely A-bomb arsenal is inadequate as a deterrent against China. Otherwise, why did four prime ministers want a TN device (H-bomb) and why did the then Prime Minister Vajpayee and his NSA Brajesh Mishra direct and insist with the BARC-DRDO leadership — Kalam, Chidambaram, Santhanam and Kakodkar — that at least one P-2 test must be of a TN device? (via K Santhanam & Ashok Parthasarathi: Pokhran-II: an H-bomb disaster).

At the cusp of history

India, is at the cusp of becoming a military power, which will make the cost of an military confrontation unacceptable to the aggressor. However, the position at the cusp, is statistically, always the most tricky. India, though far better prepared than in 1962 and 1965, has not yet become a unquestioned military force - and is yet a thresh-hold power.

Prospective aggressors would do well to remember that in 1971, India opened war on two fronts against Pakistan. On the Western front, Indian armed forces held out against a US-equipped, armed, financed and supported Pakistan. On the Eastern front, Indian Armed Forces captured more than 90,000 Pakistani soldiers as POWs, which is the largest POW capture in post WW2 wars.

At another level, there is the reductionist perspective, that beyond a point, nuclear arsenals can only "make the rubble bounce."

In modern warfare

To my mind, more critical than thermonuclear or the H-bomb, is the delivery mechanism. India, must focus on missiles which can shoot down incoming missiles and at the same time evade enemy radar and defence missiles. This will be the low cost, high impact defence strategy which can make India handle this cusp situation better. These can be low range to medium range missiles - which will target military installations and NOT civilian targets.

The other aspect is that an arms race is a mug's game. What gives military victories is the difference between armies. Armed parity will ensure a prolonged war of attrition - and not victory. India should not try for parity - but a differentiating factor.

What can make a difference

There may even be merit in having micro A-bombs which will vaporize invading forces. Instead of spending more and money on bigger and bigger bombs, it may be counter-intuitive to make smaller, more compact bombs. These can be used against invading forces - instead of the Nagasaki-Hiroshima model.

My favorite battle story

From the Ramayana - Hanuman kills Dhumaraksha.

Dhumaraksha's fearsome chariot, with braying and neighing mules, clashing cymbals and rolling bells, clanging metal and fearsome pennants, featuring vultures, rolls out from the Lanka's gates, onto the battlefield. Wreaking havoc on the vanarsena.

The sight of the chariot inspires fear - and the vanarsena is on their feet, without chariots, some 2000 miles from home, with nil supply lines, against a renowned Asura force. After watching the battle sway back and forth, seeing the flagging morale of his warriors, Hanuman picks up a huge boulder and crushes Dhumaraksha's chariot. Dhumraksha himself jumps off the chariot and escapes death. Now on the ground, on his feet, Dhumaraksha is quickly killed by Hanuman.

So, there is some sense in not getting too sophisticated, after all.

Oil, Dubai and India

Dubai - the modern El dorado?

In the last 40 years, Dubai and Middle East oil had interesting effects in India.

After the 1973 Oil Embargo, the oil riches, the glitzy infrastructure boom of the Middle East, new found power had a profound effect in India. It also made the Indian Muslim proud about his religious identity. The Bombay High oil find just about saved the Indian economy - and the Indian mental equilibrium. For the general Indian, the Middle East was the answer to the slow Indian economy. In an economy of shortages, an over-valued Indian currency, the Dubai allure was irresistible. It was the passport to wealth and abundance.

A voyage of 50 years

It took another 10-15 years for Indians to discover the underbelly of Dubai. To an average Indian, the prospect of slow career growth in Dubai, limited growth opportunities, the discrimination between the Western expatriates and Indians (and others) had a telling - and chilling effect. The Indian-Muslim, expecting a warm welcome in sandy climes, found a sneer instead.

As the Indian economy started taking off in the 1980's - starting with consumer electronics and auto-sector de-licensing, Indians found a new modus vivendi with Dubai and himself. The nineties saw this trend only become more pronounced. The Arab 'sheikh' marrying poor girls from Hyderabad peaked during this period.

Oil wells that don't end well

By 2000, India had arrived - and it was apparent to Indians, at least. In the last 10 years, as Saudi debt ballooned, Dubai's problems also became apparent. Just as it was apparent, and Quicktake pointed more than 1 year ago, that wheels are coming off Dubai. Saudi Arabia started accessing debt in 1980’s due to low oil prices – to pay the bill for a ‘welfare state’! Since then that debt has been reduced significantly – it still stands at US$62 billion.

Most oil producing countries, are now living at the edge. As India’s new oil discoveries come on line from 2009, China’s post-Olympics appetite for oil reduces, a recessionary US cuts down on oil consumption, a stagnant EU damps on oil – what happens to these oil producing countries!!

With the dollar hegemony at risk, what happens to their dollar reserves?

Arab sheikhs cant get poor girls from Hyderabad any more

The global liquidity boom saw the Indian economy offer more domestic opportunities. India's software successes gave the Indian expat manager in the Middle East some new found respect. The Arab 'sheikh' is not the frequent sight in Hyderabad now - nor is he as important, as then.

The Indian Muslim in the meantime, has also come a full circle. From the colonial-era myth of 'Muslims were the erstwhile rulers of India', to a situation where (admittedly, the few) Jinnah's ideological acolytes in India, in the face of a imploding Pakistan, an anti-Islamic West and declining Middle East have had to perforce admit, what Deoband mainatained is that

for Muslims, there is no better country than India, no country in which Muslims are doing as well as they are doing in India. Our complaints, our objections, our problems exist, and we will continue to fight our fight for justice, but in other countries the situation is much worse.

I sometimes wonder, how a very well-to-do, urbane, Hyderabadi Muslim, I know, who thought he was a Muslim first, an admirer of the West next and India is the worst place on Earth till the 80's, thinks now.

But for most other Indian Muslims, the Middle East sheen, by this time, has worn off. Increasing incomes in India and stagnant incomes in the Middle East- and the circle is complete.

NGO to sue Lindsay over false claims

"Over 40 children saved so far... Within one day's work. This is what life is about... Doing this is a life worth living! Oh, and I'm talking about being in India," the Mean Girls star (Lindsay Lohan) had said on her Twitter page.

However, Bhuvan Ribhu, national secretary of the NGO says that the actress was not even present in the country when the rescue operation took place.

"The rescue operation took place on 8 December when she had not even arrived in India. Since she was not even in the country how can she claim she rescued the children," Ribhu told PTI.

"We were not involved with her as she was called by BBC although she visited one of our rehabilitation centres," Ribhu added. (via NGO to sue Lindsay over false claims).

Just how deep can this get?

There a been some 4 very curious 'incidents', originating in Britain and targetting India(ns).

The latest first. Lindsay Lohan comes to India - to fight child trafficking, in India. Why did BBC think that Lindsay Lohan was appropriate! Fighting her own demons of alcoholism, drugs, family conditions, was she even in position to make any contribution? On what basis did the BBC select this topic.

Importantly, did anyone in India ask for BBC or Lindsay Lohan's help in fighting child trafficking?

What about your own backyard

After all closer home to the BBC there are some really interesting topics.

For instance, the national industry of Spain is prostitution? Just where are all these women coming from? Just why does the Spanish society need so many prostitutes? BBC would do well to put Lindsay Lohan on this job.

Slice and dice ...

1. Now Spain has a population of 40 million people.


2. There are a 13 million of these between the age of 15-64 years.


3. Assume that half of these 13 million are the right gender - that is 6.5 million women.


4. Assume further that a quarter of these 6.5 million women cannot 'qualify' to become prostitutes due to age, health, infirmity, deformity, appearance, etc.


5. That leaves us with roughly 4 million 'eligible' candidates - of which 400,000, i.e. 10% of 'eligible' women are prostitutes.

Western propaganda

Spain is a part of the EU, the Developed World, the OECD, etc., etc. Makes one think ...

Coming to the UK, Amnesty International says,

Home Office research found that up to 1,420 women were trafficked into the UK for sexual exploitation in 1998. The figure was based solely on reported cases

Maybe BBC can help Amnesty and the UK Home Office to estimate the 'unreported' cases.

Nail 'em and jail 'em …

Even closer home, right in the UK is the rather disturbing statistic. Britain has imprisoned 10,000 Muslims as prisoners. Out of 670,000 British Muslim male population aged between 20-60 years of age

A survey estimates British-Muslim population at 2.4 million. Chop and slice the data and the picture gets scarier. This survey by The Times says "high number of Muslims (are) under the age of 4 — 301,000 as of September last year". The same study estimates that 942,000 of British Muslims are 19 years or below. Of the remaining another 124,000 are above 60 years of age. Half of the remaining 1.34 million (i.e. 2.4 million less 1.06 million) are women - an unlikely target for imprisonment. Of the remaining 670,000, a 10,000 are in prison – which means about 1.5% of the 'eligible' British Muslim population is in prison.

Aviation safety, for instance gives standard advice - 'save yourself first'. Then save others. And by this time, you folks should have known better. So, BBC and Lindsay Lohan have their hands full.

Oh!

And by the way! We pagan sinners cannot be saved.

The Maldives trojan

Britain executed a well planned maneuver, by putting up President Nasheed of Maldives against India, at the Copenhaen Climate Change talks. Propping up Maldives as ‘fifth’ column was done over the last more than 20 years. Based on excellent PR and media management skills, the Maldives was the British Trojan horse that India was blind-sided on.

Intelligent British media

In the last 10 years, as some jobs moved 'offshore' to India, there was fear about India(ns). Then came the hatchet jobs.

So much so, The Sun and the Channel 4 mounted elaborate sting operations on Indian call centres, carrots were dangled, Indian call centre employees were tempted - and when the penny dropped, there was gleeful celebrations about the lack of security in India. 'We told you so' was the popular, smug, self-satisfied refrain, with smirks in British media.

Not to overlook responsible British media, which clearly spelt out that

"fraud is a bigger problem in UK institutions, a fact largely overlooked by the media. It is also more likely to occur in any other developed market we choose to do business with." The same article went ahead and pointed out how "Accountants Ernst & Young found in a survey of Western corporate managers that almost two thirds expected to encounter more fraud in emerging markets than at home. Yet 75 per cent of fraud occurred in developed markets, the firm said. Forrester Research found in 2005 that the UK and US suffered more computer security breaches than India."

The ‘prequel’

Nearly 15 months ago, a Scottish newspaper, The Sunday Herald ‘revealed’ that an Indian hacker had broken into the credit card database and stolen some 8 million records. The supposed ‘victim’, Best Western Hotel immediately rejected this claim, and revealed that 10 (ten only) records had been stolen. If you check this story today, The Sunday Herald has (of course), removed the Best Western rebuttal of this story. How did the newspaper identify the nationality of the hacker? A journalist’s ‘secret’ sources!

So, it was evidently planted and created for the Indian media. The story was dated August 23rd, 2008, Saturday, and carried the next day, on a Sunday for maximum impact – and for the business press to pick up and run the story on Monday morning. The story was planted through IANS, a supposed ‘pro-Indian’ news agency. Did anyone come back and retract this story? Of course, not!

The Great Indian hacker hoax

In modern times, India is not a big player in spamming or in software virus – though a power in computing industry. In August 2008, a hoax story alleged that an Indian hacker, had broken into a credit card database, and sold it to the European underworld. Some ‘experts’ feared that this would spark of a crime wave across Europe.

The Incident

“A Sunday Herald investigation has discovered that late on Thursday night, a previously unknown Indian hacker successfully breached the IT defences of the Best Western Hotel group’s online booking system and sold details of how to access it through an underground network operated by the Russian mafia.” reported The Sunday Herald from Scotland.

The ‘venerable’ Scottish newspaper, went on to quote a security expert, Jacques Erasmus, an ex-hacker who now works for the computer security firm Prevx. Erasmus declared,

“The Russian gangs who specialise in this kind of work will have been exploiting the information from the moment it became available late on Thursday night. In the wrong hands, there’s enough data there to spark a major European crime wave.”

The Sunday Herald had no hesitation in saying that the

“nature of internet crime makes it extremely difficult to track the precise details of the raid, the Sunday Herald understands that a hacker from India – new to the world of cyber-crime – succeeded in bypassing the system’s security software.”

What got me wondering was the motivation of this story? How did this story land up in IANS agency? Where did the ‘original’ writer, Mons. Iain S Bruce, get to know that an Indian was behind this ‘heist.’ Who was behind this ‘leak’ to Bro.Iain S Bruce? What are the ‘sources’ of Shri Iain S Bruce?

Chickens ... home ... roost

A team of researchers including professors of University of Brighton published a report in July 2009 titled “Crime online — Cybercrime and illegal innovation”. It was picked up by online news channels and quoted in news items to propagate lies about so-called cybercrimes in the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry of India. The report tries to present data from the annual reports of the Indian Computer Emergency Team, and Symantec in a way that suits its story, of India being a centre of cybercrimes and in general being a weak state. (via Phishing study: Bunch of lies).

Plodders – all of you!

NASSCOM investigated this scam report -and wrote a few articles in India media.

I got bad news for you, Mr. Kamlesh Bajaj!

Nasscom, your team and maybe you should include yourself. Plodders! All! The report you quote came out in July – and you are responding to it it after 3 months. What more, if you had dug deeper, you would have come out with more – dirt, that is.

I am waiting.

In the meantime, I believe that this was a dry run.

Funding India NGOs

Statistics released by the home ministry regarding ‘foreign funds to NGOs’ show that India, which has a total of 33,937 registered associations, received Rs 12,289.63 crore in foreign contributions during 2006-07 as against Rs 7,877.57 crore in 2005-06, a substantial increase of nearly Rs 4,400 crore (56%) in just one year.

The US, Germany, the UK, Switzerland and Italy were the top five foreign contributors during 2006-07. These five countries have consistently been the big donors since 2004-05. Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada and France are the other countries which figure prominently in the list of foreign donors. (via Foreign funds to Indian NGOs soar, Pak among donors-India-The Times of India).

What does this mean …

Rs 12,289.63 crore is roughly US$3 billion – based on average dollar value for 2008.

And it is a lot of money.

That is more money than what the US Govt. gave as aid to more than the 100 poorest countries. Till a few years ago, India annual FDI was US$ 4 billion – just a little more than the US$3 billion that India received as charity through various NGOs in 2008.

The total US Official Development Assistance to the whole of sub-Saharan Africa (more than 40 countries), in 2007, was “US$4.5 billion was contributed bilaterally and an estimated $1.2 billion was contributed through multilateral organizations”.

What is the source of these funds …

The rich, the poor and the middle class in these ‘charitable countries’ are themselves deep in debt. Where are they getting the money from? Why are they being so liberal towards India? What is the source of these funds?

Where this money going …

Is it going as thinly disguised aid to Naxal affected areas – where some ‘Christian’ missionaries are working to ’save’ the tribals? Is it going towards publicity for causes which are thinly disguised trade issues. For instance, child labour - which is, in many cases, a system of apprenticeship for traditional skills.

Or are these NGOs promoting policy frameworks which are distorting India’s social systems? The Population Myth /Problem /Explosion for instance was promoted for the first decade by Ford Foundation, the Carnegie Foundation and USAID. Are they behind the NGOs which are promoting Section 498 laws as a legal solution – a solution that ‘benefits’ about 5000 women and creates about 150,000 women as victims.

These are laws and policies which are undermining the Indian family system. Which country in the world has a stable family structure with such low divorce rates as India?

The Clintons, The Gates, The Turners, et al

The ‘progressive liberal’ establishment in the West is viewed rather benignly in India – and seen as ‘well wishers’ of India. Many such ideas are welcomed in India without analysis. These ideas are viewed positively, as the source of such initiatives is seen as well-intentioned.

A ‘tolerant’ and ‘open’ society like India can be a complacent victim to trojan horses.